The U.S. produces more crude oil than any other country, but the number of active oil rigs has fallen by nearly 70% since 2014, the Energy Information Administration reports. How can that be? The answer is a combination of innovation and financial pressure. Plus, the non-alcoholic beverage market booms, the U.S. Patent Office decides AI can’t be credited as an inventor and household debt burdens are on the rise.

Record oil output with fewer rigs

From “Oppenheimer” to “Poor Things,” 2023 boasted a bevy of Oscar-buzzworthy films. The ceremony isn’t till Sunday, but today  we asked New York Times critic at large Wesley Morris for his best actor, actress and picture picks. He also talked about the life of a critic and how he goes about preparing to review a movie. Plus, testing is becoming more common in hiring.

Who’s gonna win an Oscar this year?

The monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled since 2020, a Zillow report found. With mortgage rates hovering around 7%, that isn’t likely to improve much in the near future. Plus: Bitcoin investors finally see a thaw, new guidelines encourage the federal government to hire military spouses and a Chinese coffee chain’s apparent recovery from an earnings report scandal.

Who can afford to buy a home these days?

January’s personal consumption expenditures report showed that prices were up 2.4% from the same time last year, suggesting that  inflation remains in a cooling trend. The report also found that incomes jumped 1% last month — the biggest monthly gain in three years. Plus, why some customers with high-yield savings accounts aren’t getting promised rates, what Chinese electric vehicle tech could mean for national security and how Florida farmworkers are enforcing heat protection standards.

Personal incomes rose in January

U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, demonstrating the persistent strength of the economy. America is an outlier — at least for now — among world economies that have hiked interest rates to quell inflation. Plus: Some New York office towers are being repurposed and repopulated as apartment buildings, airlines are expanding routes between smaller cities and analysts say consolidation could settle the streaming wars.

GDP keeps climbing

The U.S. saw a boom in “entry level” homes for young couples post-World War II. Today’s housing market, and first-time homeownership, may be unrecognizable from the vantage point of the 1950s. In this episode, a look at the origins of starter homes and how sales agents are reframing the homebuying timeline. Plus, Macy’s announces a major pivot, CEO turnover cranks up and durable goods orders reveal where businesses stand on expansion.

Do modern-day starter homes exist?

Every time you swipe — or, these days, tap — your credit card, the merchant has to pay a fee. Some fed-up retailers are petitioning for more card fee regulation, but banks say consumers have plenty of choice as it is. Also in this episode: consumers’ moods versus economic data and pandemic purchases that buyers regret.

Credit card fee feud

The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and several other institutions rank among the largest bank collapses in U.S. history. Almost a year later, small banks still face aftershocks. Also in this episode, traditional sports journalism is disappearing. Will accountability in the sports industry follow? And one couple finds financial freedom with an unusual real estate purchase.

A not-so-happy anniversary to Silicon Valley Bank

Sustainable aviation fuel — an alternative to conventional petroleum — aims to decarbonize a carbon-heavy sector. Right now, it accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act incentivizes aviation’s transition to SAF, but manufacturers still face big roadblocks. Plus, not all SAFs are created equal. This episode is part of our series “Breaking Ground,” where we look at how federal infrastructure spending might change the economy.

Biden hopes sustainable aviation fuel production could take flight soon

Overall, inflation has plummeted since June 2022, shortly after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates, and the Fed is getting closer to its 2% target. But consumer prices are still high. So why is it taking so long for the Fed to cut interest rates? “The Federal Reserve has been faked out before, where we thought inflation was licked, and then it flared back up again,” Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, told us on today’s show. “That’s what we want to avoid.” Also: What to expect when Amazon replaces Walgreens on the Dow, how congressional budget fights threaten federal firefighters’ pay, and why the U.S. is selling its helium reserve.

Neel Kashkari and the Fed’s inflation fears

If a $35 billion deal goes through, Capital One will purchase Discover and become the nation’s largest credit card issuer. But the bank isn’t in it for credit debt — it’s in it for Discover’s payments system. Also in this episode: why Walmart had strong sales last quarter and how states are preparing for a potentially contentious Election Day. Also, is the post-lockdown travel boom still on?

What’s in your wallet?

It’s a tough time to be a first-time buyer in the housing market. But it’s also tricky if you own a home and are looking to buy a new one, because your mortgage rate could roughly double. That “lock-in effect” is keeping housing inventory low and pushing prices higher. Then, we’ll examine why shipping costs are falling despite global disruptions and hear how steakhouses are trying to rebrand themselves.

Can we break out of the mortgage lock-in effect?

Vacant offices have been tough on the commercial real estate industry, and more recently lenders that have built a big business on those property loans. But the biggest losers are cities that depend on commercial property taxes. In this episode, some municipalities face big revenue shortfalls. Also: another blow to ESG investing, the cost of big-name credit cards and our excess stuff is feeding the booming storage space industry.

Vacant office buildings are making city budgets vulnerable

Cisco, the communications infrastructure giant, is planning to cut lots of jobs. It’s the latest high-profile company to do so. Meanwhile, we keep getting positive indicators about the labor market, like today’s data on falling jobless claims. We’ll explain the disconnect on today’s show. Also: What rising import prices mean, tracking shipments on freight trains and why a bank created to integrate emancipated Black Americans into the economy matters today.

Why so many layoffs in a hot labor market?

Walmart is looking to buy TV manufacturer Vizio, according to The Wall Street Journal, even though it sells its own brand of TVs. That’s because these days, a TV’s worth is tied to its streaming platform, and acquiring Vizio’s SmartCast could help the big-box retailer grow into another kind of company. Plus, split surveys on small business optimism, a map of all the country’s zoning laws, and the falling number of small farmers.

Walmart wants Vizio, but not for the TVs

The January consumer price index just came out and inflation was up 3.1% year over year. That’s not awesome. But it’s not awful either. We’ll dig into the data, from lagging shelter costs to a still-hot labor market. Plus, monetary policy goes up against fiscal policy, the romance novel market flourishes, and rising prices for “inelastic” goods mean some consumers are gonna suffer.

A so-so CPI

Diamondback Energy said today it will buy Endeavor Energy Resources, continuing the consolidation trend in the oil industry. In this episode, why oil and natural gas companies keep merging, especially in the Permian Basin region of Texas. Plus, robotaxi vandalization may represent resentment of Big Tech, lavish quinceañeras spawn a booming industry and some streaming services struggle to provide lag-free viewing.

Cons-oil-idation

China celebrates the Lunar New Year tomorrow. With many in the country struggling financially, they’re hoping the Year of the Dragon brings a healthier economy. Also: Foreign investors are cooling on U.S. commercial real estate, Americans are looking for snack food bargains and volunteers are repairing broken appliances at pop-up Fixit Clinics.

A modest wish for the Year of the Dragon

Today, a story about one street in one neighborhood in one of America’s highest-profile cities, and the $23.9 million grant meant to transform it. It’s a 4-mile stretch of Stewart Avenue in East Las Vegas, where more than a quarter of the residents live below the poverty line. But upgrades — like improving bus stops, adding bike lanes and planting trees — could have big implications for the community. It’s part of our series “Breaking Ground,” where we look at how federal infrastructure spending might change the economy.

A turning point for Stewart Avenue

Artificial intelligence is still in its early stages, and most Americans don’t use it at work — yet. But a new survey shows 70% of workers are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about employers using AI in human resources decision-making, like hiring, firing and promotions. In this episode, we’ll dig into some AI job fears. Plus, New York Community Bank stock takes a wild ride after Moody’s dings its credit rating, and Ford’s electric vehicle sales are down, but its savings on emissions fines are up.

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